This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

2026年會是歷史上最熱的年份之一嗎？

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2026 is later revised.

The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

>1.49ºC

1.45–1.49ºC

1.40–1.44ºC

Temperature Increase

2026年10月溫度升高（ ºC ）

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised.

The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

>1.54ºC

1.50–1.54ºC

2026年11月溫度升高（ ºC ）

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 versus the data points available for all other Novembers on record.

Note: If November 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

有紀錄以來最熱

第三熱

第二熱

2026年11月第1、第2或第3熱門？

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record.

Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

全局溫度

2026年會是歷史上最熱的年份之一嗎？

2026年10月溫度升高（ ºC ）

2026年11月溫度升高（ ºC ）

2026年11月第1、第2或第3熱門？

2026年10月第1、第2或第3熱門？